Executive Summary

Q2 2025 was robust: net income $187.4M, diluted EPS $1.79, operating EPS $1.55, ROAE 30.2%, combined ratio 86.8%, and BVPS rose 8.3% in the quarter to $25.55 .
Top line and underwriting solid: GPW +18% y/y to $712.0M; underwriting income $67.5M; Bermuda (+25.9% GPW) benefited from the AM Best upgrade; ~$50M of Q2 premiums directly tied to the rating upgrade .
Big estimate beats (S&P Global): Operating EPS $1.55 vs $1.07*; revenue $740.8M vs $519.5M*; upside driven by strong investment returns (TS Hamilton Fund +$87.1M; fixed income/cash +$61.6M) and disciplined underwriting; share repurchases of $35M in Q2 and $15M in July add support . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Offsets/risks: Bermuda attritional loss ratio rose on mix and an $18M reserve strengthening in discontinued casualty lines (Air India aviation loss $6M); acquisition expense ratio up on mix/profit commissions; YTD combined ratio 99.1% reflects California wildfires, though Q2 cat impact was modest .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Broad-based strength: combined ratio 86.8% with underwriting income $67.5M; “Both our underwriting and investment results contributed,” per CEO .
- Investment engine delivered: TS Hamilton Fund contribution $87.1M (4.4% net return), fixed income/cash $61.6M; CFO: “We also increased book value per share by 8.3% this quarter to a record $25.55” .
- Strategic growth: Bermuda GPW +25.9% y/y; ~$50M premiums tied to AM Best upgrade; International still growing with Select +52% y/y, and targeted cycle management (leaning into attractive casualty, pulling back in pressured D&F/cyber) .
What Went Wrong
- Loss ratio mix pressure: Group loss ratio +1.6 pts y/y to 52.8% on higher casualty mix; acquisition ratio +1.0 pt on profit commissions/mix .
- Bermuda headwinds: combined ratio 84.3% vs 77.4% prior‐year on higher attritional and a $18M reserve strengthening in discontinued casualty lines; also booked $6M for the Air India loss .
- Year-to-date drag from Q1 cats: YTD combined ratio 99.1% and underwriting income $9.2M reflect $152.0M YTD cat losses (California wildfires and SCS) despite a clean Q2 cat experience .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($M)	$570.5	$768.8	$740.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.32	$0.77	$1.79
Operating EPS ($)	—	$0.47	$1.55
Underwriting Income ($M)	$22.4	$(58.3)	$67.5
Combined Ratio (%)	95.4%	111.6%	86.8%
Total Net Realized + Unrealized + NII ($M)	$76.2	$267.7	$229.1
ROAE (annualized)	5.8%	13.7%	30.2%
Book Value per Share ($)	$22.95	$23.59	$25.55

Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Estimate	Actual	Surprise
Operating EPS ($)	$1.07*	$1.55	+$0.48 (Beat)
Revenue ($M)	$519.5*	$740.8	+$221.3 (Beat)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown

Segment	Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
International	GPW ($M)	$350.5	$370.0	$344.8
	NPE ($M)	$249.2	$240.6	$253.2
	Underwriting Income ($M)	$9.3	$0.8	$27.1
	Combined Ratio (%)	96.3%	99.7%	89.3%
Bermuda	GPW ($M)	$193.5	$473.3	$367.2
	NPE ($M)	$232.6	$258.4	$258.0
	Underwriting Income ($M)	$13.2	$(59.1)	$40.3
	Combined Ratio (%)	94.3%	122.8%	84.3%

Key ratios – consolidated

Ratio	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Loss & LAE Ratio (%)	60.1	79.2	52.8
Acquisition Cost Ratio (%)	22.0	23.4	24.0
Other UW Expense Ratio (%)	13.3	9.0	10.0
Attritional Loss Ratio – Current Yr (%)	51.2	51.9	53.0

Other KPIs and capital

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Share Repurchases ($M)	$10.3	$35.0 (plus $15.0 in July)
Total Investments & Cash ($B)	$5.0	$5.3
TS Hamilton Fund Net Return (Quarter/Estimates)	5.5% in Q1; 7.9% YTD through Apr 30	4.4% in Q2; 10.1% YTD, tracking ~10% target

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Premium growth (GPW)	FY 2025	Double-digit growth commentary	Double-digit growth expected (both segments)	Maintained
TS Hamilton Fund net return target	FY 2025	~10% target	Still tracking toward ~10% for the year	Maintained
Effective tax rate	FY 2025+	Low single digits; GMT deferral	Low single digits; 5-year deferral of OECD global minimum tax until 2030	Maintained
Share repurchases	Ongoing	$150M authorization (announced 2024)	$35M in Q2; +$15M in July; $62M remaining under authorization	Active; capacity remaining
Segment mix/cycle management	2H 2025	Lean into attractive lines	Continue mix discipline; moderate growth in property cat; pull back where pricing weak (e.g., D&F insurance, some cyber)	Emphasized

No formal numeric revenue/EPS margin guidance was issued; management offered qualitative guardrails on expense and attritional ratios (use FY24 as guide) and capital deployment .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Casualty growth/AM Best upgrade	Upgrade enabling ~$80M FY24 GPW; expect similar in 2025	$40M Q1 tied to upgrade; leaning into selective casualty	~$50M Q2 tied to upgrade; expect moderation after full cycle; strong rate adequacy	Positive but moderating pace
Property cat pricing/terms	1/1 supply up; T&Cs/attachments holding	Midyear pricing deal-specific; increased demand expected	Midyear: pressure in some layers but still attractive; moderate growth	Stable/attractive overall
Reserve adequacy	11th consecutive year of favorable development; external actuary comfort	Favorable development in property/specialty; no major changes	$18M strengthening in discontinued casualty (Bermuda); overall favorable for quarter/YTD	Slightly cautious in legacy casualty
Investment returns	TS Fund standout (FY24 16.3%)	Q1: $167M total; TS +5.5%	Q2: $148.7M total return after NCI; TS +4.4%	Strong, supportive
Capital management (buybacks)	$137.6M in 2024	$10M in Q1 (short window)	$35M in Q2; $15M in July; $62M remaining	Accretive deployment continues
Macro/tariffs	—	Tariff/recession commentary; manageable exposure	—	Monitored, manageable

Management Commentary

CEO: “Hamilton reported another strong quarter with $187 million of net income… and a 30.2% annualized return on average equity… with a combined ratio of 86.8% and strong returns from our fixed income portfolio and the Two Sigma Hamilton Fund.”
CEO on growth mix: “Premiums directly tied to the rating upgrade were approximately $50 million in the second quarter… growth in select casualty classes and in our new credit bond and political risk offerings.”
CFO: “We also increased book value per share by 8.3% this quarter to a record $25.55.”
CFO on reserves: “$18 million charge on certain casualty lines… majority from discontinued lines… about 1% of our casualty reserves and about 0.5% of our total reserve position.”
CFO on buybacks: “We repurchased $35 million of shares this quarter… and an additional $15 million… in July… $62 million remaining under our authorization.”
CFO on tax: “Our current effective tax rate is still in the low single digits… we do not start paying global minimum tax until 2030.”

Q&A Highlights

Reserve actions: $18M strengthening tied to discontinued casualty (AY 2020 & prior) in Bermuda; no change to loss picks; International casualty reserves favorable; Air India aviation loss booked at $6M (full limit) .
Pricing/mix: Property insurance facing pressure on larger accounts; Hamilton reduced writings there; maintained/moved towards mid/smaller accounts; no property written in Hamilton Select currently; reinsurance property still attractive midyear .
Casualty outlook: Growth driven by AM Best upgrade and strong rates; selective, small participations (1–2% on quota shares); focus on top-tier clients with strong alignment .
Expenses: Higher acquisition ratio due to mix and profit commissions; other underwriting expense ratio expected to grind lower with scale (2019–present trend) .
Capital management: Active 10b5-1 enabled steady repurchases; will be “diligent about buybacks during wind season” but view shares as undervalued; lower interest expense driven by lower SOFR and reduced LOC margins post-rating upgrade .

Estimates Context

Operating EPS beat: $1.55 actual vs $1.07 consensus*; Revenue beat: $740.8M actual vs $519.5M consensus*; magnitude of beats suggests likely upward revisions to near-term EPS forecasts, particularly if investment performance and premium growth sustain. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Consensus inputs were light (EPS n=5; revenue n=1), so dispersion/reliability may be an issue for insurance “revenue” (P&L total revenue) modeling; we anchor to S&P Global for consistency. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Earnings power is improving: strong underwriting (86.8% CR) plus repeatable investment contribution drove outsized EPS and revenue beats; BVPS compounding continues .
Mix shift is the watch item: casualty growth (benefiting from the rating upgrade) lifts acquisition and attritional loss ratios near-term but remains attractive on risk-adjusted basis; management is cycling out of weaker pricing pockets (D&F, some cyber) .
Reserves prudent: $18M strengthening in legacy Bermuda casualty appears manageable (1% of casualty reserves), while overall development remained favorable; reduces tail risk perception .
Capital returns supportive: $35M Q2 buyback (+$15M July) at discount to book underscores undervaluation; $62M authorization remains; accretive to EPS/BVPS .
Trading implications (near term): Expect positive sentiment on the magnitude of beats and BVPS growth; watch for cat season headlines and Bermuda loss ratio progression given mix .
Medium-term thesis: Double-digit GPW growth with disciplined cycle management, stable expense control (other UW expense ratio grinding down), and a differentiated Two Sigma partnership targeting ~10% annual return create a credible path to mid/high-teens ROE through the cycle .
Risk flags: Cat season volatility (YTD shows sensitivity), aviation/litigation (Air India), and macro rate/terms drift in property insurance; reserve vigilance remains key .

S&P Global disclaimer: Items marked with an asterisk (*) reflect consensus estimates/reported actuals retrieved from S&P Global and may differ from company definitions.

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary